There are several ways to express uncertainty. "~ darou" is a plain form of "~ deshou," and means "will probably." The adverb "tabun (perhaps)" is sometimes added.
Kare wa ashita kuru deshou. 彼は明日来るでしょう。 | He will probably come tomorrow. |
Ashita wa hareru darou. 明日は晴れるだろう。 | It will be sunny tomorrow. |
Kyou haha wa tabun uchi ni iru deshou. 今日母はたぶんうちにいるでしょう。 | My mother will probably be home today. |
"~ darou" or "~deshou" is also used to form a tag question. In this case you usually can tell the meaning from the context.
Tsukareta deshou. 疲れたでしょう。 | You were tired, weren't you? |
Kyou wa kyuuryoubi darou. 今日は給料日だろう。 | Today is a payday, isn't it? |
"~ darou ka" or "~ deshou ka" is used when guessing with doubt. "~ kashira" is used only by females. A similar expression used by both genders is "~kana," though it is informal. These expressions are close to "I wonder ~" in English.
Emi wa mou igirisu ni itta no darou ka. エミはもうイギリスに行ったのだろうか。 | I wonder if Emi has already gone to England. |
Kore ikura kashira. これいくらかしら。 | I wonder how much this is. |
Nobu wa itsu kuru no kana. のぶはいつ来るのかな。 | I wonder when Nobu will come. |
"~ kamoshirenai" is used to express a sense of probability or doubt. It shows even more uncertainty than "~ darou" or "~ deshou". It is used when you don't know all the facts and are often just guessing. It is similar to the English expression "might be." The formal version of "~ kamoshirenai" is "kamoshiremasen".
Ashita wa ame kamoshirenai. 明日は雨かもしれない。 | It might rain tomorrow. |
Kinyoubi desu kara, kondeiru kamoshiremasen. 金曜日ですから、 混んでいるかもしれません。 | Since it is Friday, it might be busy. |
* Compare these sentences.
Kare wa tabun kin-medaru o toru deshou. 彼はたぶん金メダルを取るでしょう。 | He will probably get the gold medal. |
Kare wa kin-medal o totta no kana. 彼は金メダルを取ったのかな。 | I wonder if he got the gold medal. |
Kare wa kin-medaru o toru kamoshirenai. 彼は金メダルを取るかもしれない。 | He might get the gold medal. |
The last thing to mention is, "~ darou" or "~ deshou" can't be used when referring to one's own actions, though "~ kamoshirenai" can be used in these situations.
Ashita watashi wa Kobe ni iku kamoshirenai. 明日私は神戸に行くかもしれない。 | I might go to Kobe tomorrow. |
Ashita watashi wa Kobe ni iku darou. | Wrong |
Ashita ane wa Kobe ni iku darou. 明日姉は神戸に行くだろう。 | My sister will go to Kobe tomorrow. |